Opinion

Those irritating 20 %


by Ed Verbeek - published on 1 June 2021 839 -

Article by Ed Verbeek, MSc, FNI

A long time ago, on an instructors course, I was taught that you should start your presentation with a BOOM, not with a 'poof'……..

In line with that, I used to start presentations on the infamous 80 % “Human Error” with:

Whenever I hear that 80 % of the accidents at sea are caused by Human Error; I am shocked.
I hope I offend no one, but I am shocked that after thousands of years of designing, building and equipping ships, the technology is apparently still so frail that one out of five accidents has technical causes.


This was closely followed by

I have sometimes heard: “80% Human Error, what are we going to do about it". Well, I have good news: if you would want to reduce it, that is very easy. Just build bad ships and put even worse equipment on board and you will see the percentage of Human Error in accidents reduce dramatically. The only downturn is that you will have to accept an increase in the number of accidents.

I have discovered that such a BOOM can be an overkill. I noticed that some people needed so much time to recover, that they missed part of the rest of the presentation. Some were taken aback, thinking that I was looking for a confrontation…

So I have developed a better sized BOOM, and hope that this is sufficient to raise your interest, without triggering negative feelings. My new start:

Just suppose you want to buy a car, and the seller notices that safety is an important issue for you. Just suppose that he will say: this is not such a good car: almost 100 % of the accidents with this car are because of “Human Error”. That other car is much safer: only 60 % of the accidents are because of “Human Error”, the other accidents are because of brakes failing, steering break-downs, etc etc. Would you agree with this seller?

In fact, what happens as soon as there is any systemic technical problem with a car? There will be a recall! In 2018, Toyota recalled more than 2,4 million Prius cars because of possible power stall in rare circumstances. Toyota declined to say if an actual accident did happen…. In road traffic we’re talking in excess of 99% "Human Error"…..and no one would want it differently. Actually we don’t even discuss it. I am quite sure that in road traffic 20% accidents due to technical failures would be absolutely unacceptable. It would be nice if we could reduce this irritating figure of 20% "Technical Failures" in shipping too! (realising that - while reducing the number of accidents - this would automatically increase the percentage "Human Error")
Technical or Human Error?
Technical or Human Error?
Technical or Human Error?
Technical or Human Error?
My hypothesis is that any mature, well developed system is bound to have a high percentage “Human Error”. As the system develops, and the reasons for technical failures are analysed, these are remedied. The number of technical failures will then reduce. On the human side, as the system develops, risks are better known, and procedures will be developed, bringing down the number of accidents due to "Human Error". However, humans will continue to have to make decisions based on incomplete information, while having to serve multiple, partly conflicting goals, in an imperfect designed and regulated environment. So it is much harder to bring down this number. The sum total is much less accidents, and as accidents attributes to technical failures reduce even more than accidents attributed to "Human Error" , the percentage "Human Error" will increase. A high percentage "Human Error" is an indication that the people at the sharp end are given tools that are 'fit for purpose'.

I like to just play with numbers to gain a better understanding of what the ramifications of statements are. Let's just do that with this statement: suppose that in a developing system there are 1000 incidents, 500 due to technical failures and 500 due to "Human Error". As the system matures, and the technical requirements are better known, adding a bit of steel here, fixing that connection, making that part a bit more resilient, brings down the number due to technical failure to 50. Better selection, training and procedures brings down "Human Error" to 150. So over the years safety increased dramatically. Accidents due to technical failures reduced from 500 to 50. Accidents due to "Human Error" reduced from 500 to 150. The total number of accidents reduced from 1000 to 200. In percentages the total number of incidents reduced by 80%, but "Human Error" has gone up from 50% to 75%(!) while technical failure reduced from 50% to 25%. Although I don't know of any research on the subject, I'm convinced that in the 17th century the percentage "Human Error" was much lower than presently, as many accidents happened because of technical failures, or uncontrollable circumstances.

By the way, although it can be assumed that mature, well developed systems have a high percentage of “Human Error”, this can not be turned around: a system with a high percentage "Human Error" does not necessarily have to be a mature, well developed system. There is always the possibility that a high percentage "Human Error" is due to insufficient selection, training, experience etc. However for a mature, regulated system it is unlikely that this would play a large part.
The message I want to bring across with this article is quite simple: Mature, well developed systems are bound to have a low percentage of technical failures. Consequently these systems will have a high percentage if Human Error. There is no need for a knee-jerk reaction to try to reduce this. Most likely it is a good sign and there is no need to reduce this percentage! We need other indicators to know what needs improvement and how that could be achieved.
Editor's note:
Opinion pieces reflect the personal opinion of individual authors. They do not allow any conclusions to be drawn about a prevailing opinion in the respective editorial department. Opinion pieces might be deliberately formulated in a pronounced or even explicit tone and may contain biased arguments. They might be intended to polarise and stimulate discussion. In this, they deliberately differ from the factual articles you typically find on this platform, written to present facts and opinions in as balanced a manner as possible.

Join the conversation...

Login or register to write comments and join the discussion!
SP
Sanjeev Pande Ocean Sparkle Limited, India
on 13 June 2021, 08:44 UTC

Spot on! In a mature system, a 20% error factor should make us start looking for, or devising, different indicators other than for "human error" if we want to reduce the error percentage any further.
0

Read more...

Opinion What is the added value of pilotage?

by Ed Verbeek Nautical Consultancy and Training - published on 7 December 2020

The individual pilot operates as part of a pilotage organisation. And, as with so many things, the whole is (much) more than the sum of the parts ...

0

Opinion Piloting, Autonomous Vessels, AI, and the coffee making machine

by Captain Ricardo Caballero "Themaritimepilot" - published on 15 June 2020

I am not a computer savvy. My knowledge in programming and robotics and those sort of things is nil. I get lost in the sea of social media and easily entangle myself in the web. All I have done for the last 25 years or so is to pilot ships through the Panama Canal. However, during the last couple of years I have done my best to catch up with technology, since it has enhanced our possibilities and improved safety in our field. But still, I have to admit that I am way behind the new guys in this important issue.

1

Video Tanker docking - drone video

published on 18 March 2022

Una nave cisterna, con l aiuto dei rimorchiatori, ormeggia in banchina.
A tanker, with the help of tugs, moors on the quay.

0

Video Crowley Completes First U.S. Design for Fully Electric Tug with Autonomous Technology

published on 21 April 2021

Crowley Engineering Services has completed a design of the first fully electric U.S. tugboat with autonomous technology -- providing operators a sustainable and high-performing solution for ship assist and harbor services in any port. The Crowley design, powered by the expertise of recently integrated subsidiary Jensen Maritime, leverages a large battery system and power saving technology to operate in a fully electric mode while producing zero air emissions or greenhouse gases. The 82-foot...

1

Video Awesome Video: Suez Canal-Egypt (Northbound)

published on 28 October 2021

Many of you saw the last video and we were traveling South through the canal, but this video is from our Northbound transit.
Enjoy the footage and soon I hope to be back to work again. Waiting for the results of my physical exams to clear.

0

Article 3 new vacancies for Marine Pilots added today

by Frank Diegel - published on 4 October 2021

We have currently researched 20 vacancies for Marine Pilots around the world. Take a look at our job section, where 3 new offers have been added today.

3

Article Today Marine-Pilots.com has registered 640 pilot organisations / companies worldwide

by Marine-Pilots.com - published on 9 February 2021

We've reached the 640!
120 countries are represented.

0

Video Pilot boarding in the ice

published on 4 July 2019

by Finnpilot Pilotage Oy
Luotsi nousee Perämerellä talvella alukseen ja poistuu aluksesta

0

Video Barracuda Poole Pilot Boat

published on 7 September 2021

Barracuda comes to shepherd SS Shieldhall into Poole harbour on the 4th of September 2021. The day the biplane crashed in front of the Haven Hotel at Sandbanks.

0